Friday 8 June 2012

South Africa v England - Preview


Teams:

England                             South Africa
Brown              15          Kirchner
Ashton              14          Peietersen
Tuilagi               13          De Villiers
Barritt               12          F.Steyn
Foden               11          Habana
Farrell               10          M.Steyn
Youngs               9          Houghaard 
Morgan               8          Spies
Robshaw             7          Alberts
Johnson               6          Coeetzee
Botha                  5          Etzebeth
Parling                 4          Kurger
Cole                    3          J.Du Plessis
Hartley                2          B.Du Plessis
Marler                 1          Mtawarira 

Replacements
Doran-Jones                   Strauss
Mears                            Oosthuizen
Palmer                           van der Merwe
Downson                       Daniel
Dickson                         Pieenar
Flood                            Lambie
Joseph                          Oliver

Key Battles

Cole v Mtawarira
This game will be won in the forwards, but the backs will need the platform to attack. If Cole is able to replicate his form against Ireland he has a fighting chance. If Mtawarira is able to repeat the form he showed in the first test against the Lions then he will easily outscrum Cole. Whatever Graham Rowntree may say, the aim is for parity.
Verdict - Mtawarira

Botha v Etzebeth
Both South Africans, both work horses, but on different side. The 6'8 Etzebeth is a mammoth of a man and will sure be a regular in the South African side for years to come. However, the man is only 20 and will be getting his first taste of international rugby. Botha is the English work horse, willing to put his body in dangerous positions. His ball carrying, tenacity at the breakdown and tackle count will be crucial in England stopping the South African style of game. If England are to win the likes of Botha, Robshaw and Marler will have to be on top of their game.
Verdict  - Botha

Farrell v Steyn
Both sides bring a kicking game to the fore when playing. Morne Steyn has been in outstanding form and is needed to exploit the new backline combination. If the battle is won in the forwards, Steyn will be crucial in ticking the scores over and pinning England back into their own half. Likewise Farrell will play the same role, if not a more expansive game releasing the likes of Tuilagi and Ashton. This battle decides very much in what is to happen in the forwards.
Verdict - Farrell

Prediction

To stop the South Africans there are two things England would have to do. Win the set piece and win the physcial battle. With weeks together, there will be parity in the scrum and England will have the better lineout. In terms of physicality it is something we will only see on the day, but with two South African born players in the side, and under the guidance of Lancaster and Rowntree we should not underestimate the physicality of the England side picked to play. The choice of Marler gives England a more mobile prop who can make the tackles and Tom Johnson will certainly bring an Exeter fighting spirit with him into the England set up. Equally, if South Africa want to win, they will just need to physically batter the English and last longer than them. A physical battering along with the kicking of Morne Steyn may be good enough to defeat the English. Elsewhere, Mike Brown and Ben Foden have been chosen to nullify the effect of Steyn's kicking and if the decision works it could be enough to stop the kicking game and draw the match into a physical beasting.

Verdict - The match is going to be very close. It will be within 7 points each way and Rugby Review predicts an England win after having acheived scrum parity, lineout domination and a victory in the physical and kicking game. There will most likely be a try for an outside back and a back row forward. 

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